Hunterdon Market Pulse – Cyclones & Cycles
As we entered hurricane season in mid-September last year, a cyclone hit Wall Street which took down giants of the financial sector and caused books on the Great Depression to fly off shelves across the nation. The ghost of Herbert Hoover found an unlikely re-incarnation in the mindless medium of Ann Coulter. Choices ranged from a replay of Keynesian demand stimulus, which mitigated and finally ended the Great Depression as government money poured into war production in the 1940s, and the do-nothing ‘trickle-down’ policies of Hoover/Coulter. The great waves of economic disaster that washed across this country last fall began years ago in the real estate sector. But sales now plummeted like a stone from the low levels of 2006 - 2008.
In the past two months, sales have rebounded some. As a result of increased confidence (decreased fear) and the typical Spring cycle of home buying, the inventory of homes for sale has dropped from the incredible highs of late ’08 and early ’09 (late blue to purple below) to the dismally high level of the past three years.
Another look at the inventory over the longer term is below. This shows how far we’ve come from the hot seller’s market of 2001-2005, when the index ranged around 4-5 months to sell every home. The current index is about 11 months to sell every Hunterdon County home now on the market. What does this mean for your potential home sale?
While a hot seller’s market is years in the future, a recovery of the homes market seems to have begun, quite simply because more homes are being purchased and there are fewer homes on the market.
- source: Otteau Appraisal
According to appraiser Jeffrey Otteau, the New Jersey “housing market is simultaneously experiencing rising sales-pace and declining unsold-inventory, suggesting better days may be around the corner.”
“Given that 6-months of housing supply is the balance point at which home prices tend to stabilize, and below which prices are inclined to rise, the New Jersey market may be in the process of ending its nearly 3 year slide.”
“While there are many reasons for these improvements, the primary cause is that housing affordability in New Jersey has risen to 111% today from a low of only 81% back in 2006. Simply put, New Jersey households can once again afford home ownership because of the dramatic drop in both home prices and interest rates over the past couple of years.” (Otteau, May 2009)
The county map above shows Hunterdon in the second tier, with an inventory not as low as Somerset and not as high as Warren County.
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Don Sherblom. RE/MAX Town & Country
44 Leigh Street, Clintn, NJ 08809
(908) 303-8130
Find your next home fast at http://ClintonRealEstate.com
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Posted in Hunterdon Homes Market | 
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