The April 30th deadline to place homes under contract and qualify for tax incentives pumped up sales towards the end of April. This led to a hangover effect in May and June. The local homes market has yet to return to seasonal averages of the last few years, as seen below. 

Given that whole summer thing, home sales may not rise significantly until after after Labor Day, keeping the pressure on to price your home right. But this lull may bode well for a resurgence of home sales in the fall, typically the second most active market of the year. For home sellers, competition is key.

The inventory index, or absorption rate, shows how long it would take to sell every home on the market at last month’s sales pace. This index (shown above) went from an unusual low to new heights in the last two months. If the ratio of new listings to sales is favorable, the index could drop, making  homes sell better after Labor Day than in any recent year. Stay tuned – and call me for a free consultation on the preparation, marketing, and sale of your Hunterdon Home! (Don Sherblom 908 797-9900)

Call me or email  Don Sherblom 
                                       RE/MAX Town & Country
                                      44 Leigh St., Clinton NJ 08809 

                                      908 797-9900    ClintonRealEstate.com

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Please call for a free price and marketing analysis. Don Sherblom  908 797-9900

Time for a caffeine jolt.  April’s tax-credit stimulated surge ebbed in May, as seen on the graph below.  Some commentators compained this tax break just moved demand around instead of creating demand but hardly any of them were Realtors, active home sellers or buyers, who all loved the stimulus.  Some even called for an extension. 

Yesterday the New Jersey Senate passed (by 38-0) and sent to the Governor another credit for buyers.  Will this tax-cut budget-conscious Governor sign the NJ credit into law?  The bill is heavily weighted, not to the majoity of homes for sale but to new construction, and builders are very powerful in New Jersey, so stay tuned.

Meanwhile, we’re in the equivalent of a mid-afternoon slump so a little caffeine could help get home sales back into the 110-130 range of recent mid-year sales of Hunterdon homes.  But fear not, there’s another seasonal wave coming, perhaps smaller but real:  those who missed the spring credit but not the desire to move and settle in before the next school year starts.  I’ve only got anecdotal evidence of this mini-surge, based on my listings, many in Clinton Township, so we’ll have to wait for next month to see if it shows up in Hunterdon sales. 

And what about prices? That depends on the inventory, which is a long way from the 3-5 month level where competition among buyers for the best homes starts to push home prices higher.

{The inventory index, the number of homes for sale divided by the number sold last month, measures the absorption rate in the current local homes market.}

The graph above shows an unusually low inventory index in April and a higher inventory index in May. But given the time of year and greater confidence in the overall economy we could easily swing back to the blue, green, yellow, red zone this month and next.

You don’t need to wait - now’s the time to take care of your real estate needs.  So call me (908) 797-9900 for a free consultation and price analysis on your home.

Call me or email Don Sherblom  RE/MAX Town & Country 44 Leigh St., Clinton NJ 08809 

908 797-9900    ClintonRealEstate.com

Get yours today: text RealApp to 87778 or click below to visit http://GetRealApp.com

Please call for a free price and marketing analysis on your home. I’d love to add you to my list of happy clients and look forward to marketing your home. Don Sherblom  908 797-9900

As of May 1st, 2010 the inventory of homes for sale is lower than at any point since 2006. That’s good news for home sellers!  Although we’re still in a buyers market, fewer homes for sale equals less competition. 

As the graph on home sales in Hunterdon County (below) shows, sales started more slowly this year than in the past but, thanks in part to the stimulus tax credits, have now surged to a higher level in April 2010 than anytime since 2005.  Now that the tax credit has ended, what will happen to home sales?

The green line above shows 2009 sales, which were pumped up by the tax credit last fall, only to drop after the November closing deadline.  Of course, December and January are traditionally months of lower activity in Hunterdon County, NJ.

Unlike 2009, the 2010 tax credit has two deadlines:  (1) to be under contract by the end of April and (2) to close by the end of June.  Although eligibility for the credit has passed, the homes placed under contract during April will close during the next two months.  There will be a continued knock-on effect during what is normally a good time for home sales, the spring, as some move-up buyers shop for their next home.

Given the uncertainty about this fall, the next couple of months may be the best for home sellers, before the market drops off as it tends to do in the autumn.  The news for home sellers may not be this good in the second half of 2010, so now’s a good time to make your move!

CALL ME on my cell: (908) 797-9900 or email me for a Price Analysis of your Hunterdon Home. 
Find out why RE/MAX now sells more homes in New Jersey than any company.  Our long-time competitors are now ranked 2 and 3, not in the number of agents (including part-timeagents) but quite simply in the number of New Jersey home sales!  Soar above the crowd with your RE/MAX agent! 908 797-9900.

I always wanted to write a headline like that; well at least since about 2006!  The best part is, it’s true. The graph on Hunterdon Home sales below shows sales rising. 

 We’re ahead of 2009.  Can we cross the blue line, do better than May, June of 2008 and go higher like the middle of last year?  That’s the pattern I expect to see play out over the next few months as the tax incentive ends.  Homes bought under that incentive will close title between now and June 30th with a knock-on effect in sales of homes in higher price ranges. Every purchase by a first-time buyer generates 3-4 other closings as the proceeds appear at closing tables across New Jersey (and the Carolinas). The combination of more affordable home prices and low interest rates also spurs sales.

Back to the headline. The inventory of homes for sale is down this month, again well ahead of 2009 and almost crossing the line of 2008. Look for that to dip even more in April, the last month to get under contract a home that must close by the end of June. The drop in October 2009 is a model or what we can expect. (See last month’s post below.)

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Get yours today: text RealApp to 87778 or click below to visit http://GetRealApp.com

Please call for a free price and marketing analysis on your home. I’d love to add you to my list of happy clients and look forward to marketing your home. Don Sherblom  908 797-9900  don@clintonrealestate.com

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The oft-quoted New Jersey appraiser, Jeffrey Otteau’s advice for both home buyers and sellers is that your best time to make a move is the next two months.   For buyers, March is optimum, for sellers March and April will be the most opportune times to sell anytime this year.  Since hindsight is 20/20 it helps to know this prediction is based on evidence from October 2009.  This was the last month a buyer could put a house under contract and qualify for $8,000 in tax credits. A quick look at Hunterdon home sales shows a bump up by about a 25% in October, largely attributable to the tax incentive. 

The Inventory Index (months’ supply of  homes at last month’s sales pace) showed a temporary drop in the number of Hunterdon County homes for sale that same month.  

The tax credit was subsequently extended and expanded to include $6,500 for current home owners.  To qualify now, buyers need to be under contract by April 30th (they have another two months to have a title closing).  

Another factor, Mortgage interest rates, indicates March is the better month for buyers to make their move.  Rates are currently low, in part to the FED program of Buying mortgage backed securities until the end of this month. 

In April, rates will probably go higher, a move that initially prompts buyers to jump in.  The approaching tax credit deadline will further increase buyer activity.  All this will happen not in a season which typically sees declining sales, but at the most active time of year.   So the house that’s been sitting through a snowy February without showings will get showings and maybe even an offer.  Bargaining power will start to evaporate as the snow recedes, especially as we approach mid-April.  

For home sellers, pricing it realistically and getting it on the market before the crest in buying activity will be important, especially since no body knows where the real estate market will be after the Spring.  In short, now may be the best time this year – right now for buyers (before mortgage rates go up and the competition increases) and for home sellers, sometime these two months, as the normal seasonal trend is lifted further by low rates and tax credits, will be optimum.

Please call (908) 797-9900 for an analysis of your home’s current market value Don Sherblom at 908 797-9900 or email me here    

The Spring homes market usually picks up as winter goes out, some say like a lamb.  But there are already stirrings in this year’s Spring market.  I’ve even had a couple of multiple offer situations recently.  What has finally awakened the beast of deferred home buyer demand? 

• Rates: The Fed. has been buying mortgage-backed securities to keep interest rates low.  That’s an incentive to buy now.  That program ends on March 31, 2010.  Mortgage rates will go up, and that will first spur late deciders to decide, then chill the market when monthly payments get too high.  
• Prices: Home prices haven’t been this low in 7 years!  Most analysts agree our local homes market has reached bottom.  Demand is stronger but the inventory of available homes remains high so there’s lots of choices.
• Cash: OK, low prices, low rates, lots of choices, and there’s one more incentive, which expires on April 30:  A refund of up to $8,000.  (If you don’t owe that much, the IRS cuts you a check.)  You must be under contract by April 30th to qualify.

The graph below compares the homes inventory index for the past five Januarys. 

While still high, the inventory is where it was two years ago, and it goes down each Spring.  The worst period for home sellers, when sales stalled during the financial crisis of mid-September through April 2009, is behind us.  The second half of 2009 was even better than the last half of 2006 or 2007 .

The same information in a diferent format better shows the absorption of inventory over the past five years in Hunterdon County.  While the index now is where it was in 2008, above 2006 or 2007, the basket of incentives listed above should rapidly increase sales, causing the index to drop far faster, more like 2006 and 2007 than 2008 when the economy was in recession.     

Going forward, the economy could still have a few wild cards.  Last year’s bank bailout to stave off depression obviously worked.  (Today, Bankers seem to be the only ones not depressed.)  But the subsequent economic stimulus may not have been big enough to get the jobs machine back online.  That clouds the real estate market.  But overwise, we’re looking forward to a pretty robust Spring market – one that comes on like a lion’s pride looking for red meat.

Call me for a survey of recent home sales in your town, and analysis of your home’s current market value, please call me, Don Sherblom at 908 797-9900 or by email.    

After last year, we’re all looking forward to a new year.  The reason for optimism is seen in the inventory index.  Yes, the inventory of available homes is still high and this makes it harder for home sellers, but looking at two points on the graph brings the near future into focus.  First, the high blue line at the end of 2008 and high white line in early 2009 shows the effect of the financial crisis and Great Recession.  We came through that sometime about May and by September 2009 the inventory index was better than any year since 2005. 

By October both the inventory index and the number of homes under contract improved dramatically here in Hunterdon County NJ.  The anticipated expiration of the first-time home buyers’ tax credit (due to expire Nov. 30th, which meant homes had to be under contract in October) together with continued low mortgage rates and a slightly improved economic picture created a mini-surge of home sales.  The Christmas season brought both indicators back to the levels of other years.

Now, with a fragile but continued economic stability, and with the FED continuing its program to buy up mortgage-backed securities to keep rates low, and with the expansion of the tax credit to include not just $8,000 for first-time buyers, but also $6,500 for move-up buyers through April 30th, this Spring looks to be an excellent time to sell your home.   

To the appraiser Jeffrey Otteau, ”it appears certain that the recent surge in home sales together with it’s October crescendo will repeat itself during the 1st half of 2010 as the expanded home buyer tax credit nears expiration. And so, 2010 should bring the largest Spring surge in homes sales since the housing downturn began in 2005. As a result, homeprices should realize modest gains in the coming year.”

For a survey of recent home sales in your town, an analysis of your home’s current market value, and a dynamic marketing plan from the industry’s leader, RE/MAX, please call me, Don Sherblom at 908 797-9900 or by email.  

As the homes market slowly turns back toward balance, it makes sense to look at a long-term trend to better appreciate where we are now.  This graph of the Inventory Index over the past eight years supports the idea that the worst of this three-year decline in the homes market is behind us. 

Improving market conditions such an economy coming out of the worst recession since the Great Depression, the improved affordability (lower prices) of homes, currently low interest rates and significant pent-up demand all support the idea that this Spring 2010 market will be our first normal Spring market since 2006.

The graph above also shows how far we still have to go to get back to a strong sellers’ market such as we experienced prior to 2006.

The graph above compares year on year with 2005 being the last “normal” year; a relatively balanced market, neither a strong sellers’ market nor strong buyers’ market.  Again, the worst appears behind us, last Autumn (on the heels of the financial crisis) and the Spring of 2009.  Yet the inventory index (the number of months to sell every home on the market at last month’s sales pace) needs to drop below five months before home prices begin to move up again.  At this point, even with 12 months supply, we’re roughly even with November 2006, and ahead of November 2007, and 2008.

As the inventory continues to drop, previously frustrated sellers (expired, withdrawn, or not listed) will re-enter the market. Since the index is affected by the number of homes newly listed as well as the number placed under contract, increased buyer activity will be partially offset by new listings. This see-saw of buyer-seller activity will slow the return to a sellers’ market, frustrating anyone hoping for a quick return to 2005 prices.  But let’s not end on a sour note, since the worst is behind us.  Even at this early hour, you can see blue skies ahead.

For a survey of recent home sales in your town, an analysis of your home’s current market value, and a dynamic marketing plan from the industry’s leader, RE/MAX, please call me, Don Sherblom at 908 797-9900 or by email.  

Capitalizing on the success of the $8,000  home buyers’ tax credit, Congress expanded the credit in legislation signed by President Obama on Oct 6.  The new law raises the income ceiling to $125,000 for single people and $225,000 for married couples, with a phase out for incomes up to $245,000. The home must be priced below $800,000, under contract before April 30, 2010 and close before July 1, 2010.
 

This credit (if you owe less, you get a refund) has been claimed by 1.4 million people nationally, based on figures from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). According to the NAR, about 350,000 of those would not have made their purchase without the tax credit. These home sales boosted the homes market and helped bring the larger economy back from the brink. For more information click here.

Here in Hunterdon County, and in New Jersey, real estate sales have been increasing and the inventory dropping.  While the inventory is still well above a balanved market, more homes went under contract last month than in any October since 2005.  

The inventory has slipped to 9.7 months to sell every home at today’s sales pace.

Home sales are far better in Hunterdon County, NJ than in any year since 2005!  With the extension of the tax credit, and the FED’s recent extension of a program to keep mortgage rates low, this is the start of something we haven’t seen in a long time – a return to a ‘normal’ real estate market.  

For a survey of recent home sales in your town, an analysis of your home’s current
market value, and a dynamic marketing plan from the industry’s leader, RE/MAX,
please call me, Don Sherblom at 908 797-9900 or by email.  

Today – Thursday, November 5th –Congress extended and expanded the homebuyer tax credit.  The bill will be sent to President Obama for his signature.  First-time buyers (those who have not had a principle residence for three years) are still eligible, and the maximum amount remains the same – $8,000 for married couples, $4,000 for those filing separately.  When President Obama signs the bill, which he is espected to do quickly, the expiration date for the credit will move to April 30, 2010 for a binding contract that closes before July 1, 2010.

Current homeowners who have used the home as their primary residence for five of the last eight years are also eligible. However, the maximum amount for those homeowners is lower: $6,500 for married couples and $3,200 for those filing separately. The tax credit may not used to purchase a home for more than $800,000. All buyers who want to get the credit must include documentation of the purchase on their tax returns.